"It is a very big deal that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its abrupt exit from Opec, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The Emiratis were members even before they became a nation state in 1971. Opec is the organisation of mainly Gulf oil exporters, which for many decades controlled the price of crude oil by decreasing or increasing production and allocating quotas across its membership. It had a vital role in 1970s oil crises, which in turn transformed global energy policy. While Opec production is dominated by Saudi Arabia, the UAE had the second highest spare production capacity. In other words, it was the second most important swing producer, capable of increasing production to help ease prices."

"The UAE will attempt to sell as much oil as they can to as many people as possible. And that will run up against any attempts that the Opec group is making to keep prices high. The war has upended everything."

"The UAE has chafed under years of oil production cuts led by the Saudis to support prices. It has watched as Iraq and OPEC+ member Russia have routinely exceeded their quotas. If countries that are abiding by their quota get disgusted with those that don't, we could see additional exits that could eventually make OPEC irrelevant as a cartel."

"The Strait of Hormuz closure is masking the immediate impact of this departure, but once the strait reopens, a UAE pumping freely towards 4.8 million barrels per day represents a real shift of 1 to 2 per cent of global demand"

"The World Bank has calculated that the Iran war has caused the biggest loss of oil supply on record; energy prices will rise by about 25 per cent on average this year"