"In June 2025, the prediction markets favoured an outcome in which there would be around 2000 cases of measles by the end of the year. There were actually 2288. I've seen many worse forecasts from our models."

"In February 2026, a Polymarket trader won $553,000 by correctly predicting the death of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026."